Making Forecasts in an Age of Accelerating Technological Change

The Daimler Motoren Gesellschaft (DMG) company manufactured its first gasoline-powered Mercedes car in 1902. And early in the 1900s, so the story goes, DMG’s financial planners carefully predicted that by the year 2000 the world automotive market might have grown to such an extent that there could be as many as one million automobiles in use worldwide. But…

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